Top-line Takeaways from Sustainable Aviation Futures North America Congress 2024
The Sustainable Aviation Futures North America Congress focused on what is required to develop and rapidly scale the North American SAF production landscape, from unpacking federal and state-level policy, to developing feedstocks, to unlocking the finance required to meet industry targets. Shamin Hosseini Nami, University of Houston, and Audrey Fan, Entrepreneur and Aviation Enthusiast, both volunteers at the congress, share their unique insights and takeaways from the congress.
PhD of Chemical Engineering
-
University of Houston
Sustainable Aviation Fuel: Paving the Path to Net-Zero Aviation
The aviation industry stands at a pivotal moment in its history, facing unprecedented challenges in the pursuit of decarbonization. At a recent landmark conference, industry leaders, policymakers, and experts convened to discuss the critical role of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) in achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. This comprehensive report delves into the key discussions, challenges, and future prospects for SAF as presented at the conference.
The Urgency of SAF Adoption
Aviation currently accounts for approximately 2% of global emissions, but this percentage is expected to increase as other sectors reduce their carbon footprint. This makes the development and implementation of SAF solutions increasingly urgent. The scale of transformation required is staggering, with the aviation industry requiring an estimated $5 trillion in investments to meet its decarbonization targets.
Despite these challenges, more than 50 airlines, representing 40% of global air travel, have committed to SAF initiatives, demonstrating the industry's dedication to sustainable transformation. However, industry experts caution that not all announced production schedules may materialize, emphasizing the need for accelerated momentum and concrete action.
Key Focus Areas
Sustainable Irrigation and Infrastructure Expansion
A critical focus of the conference centered on sustainable irrigation and infrastructure expansion. Discussions highlighted the importance of utilizing recycled water to meet 100% of landscape irrigation needs and expanding airport infrastructure with additional facilities to improve logistics. The strategic geographical positioning of SAF production facilities emerged as a key factor for scaling across Europe, Africa, and Asia, with untapped feedstock production opportunities noted in vast regions such as Canada, Russia, Africa, and parts of South America.
Private Sector Engagement and Emissions Reduction
Private sector engagement has proven essential, with the International Finance Corporation (IFC) providing crucial financing support. Dan Bishop was particularly recognized for his commitment to involving the private sector in environmental progress, emphasizing that sustainable advancements cannot occur without private sector participation.
The focus on reducing greenhouse gas emissions has become central to SAF-related tax credits and regulations, with an emphasis on measurable outcomes rather than default values. The importance of sustainable agricultural practices that enhance soil carbon and minimize emissions was thoroughly discussed, with experts emphasizing the variability of results depending on specific conditions and stressing the need for measurement-based approaches over blanket practices.
Production Technologies and Pathways
The conference dedicated significant attention to the scientific aspects of SAF production and carbon capture technologies. Various SAF production methods were discussed, including:
Hydrogen-based reduction
Thermal reduction
Electrochemical reduction
Power-to-Liquids (PtL) pathways
Each method presents unique advantages and challenges. For instance, hydrogen-based reduction, while effective, is costly due to the high expense of hydrogen. Thermal reduction avoids the cost of hydrogen but may reduce fuel yield. Electrochemical reduction requires significant amounts of renewable electricity, further driving up costs.
Power-to-Liquids (PtL) pathways emerged as a promising avenue for SAF production, focusing on converting renewable energy into liquid fuels. In PtL processes, hydrogen, especially green hydrogen, plays a central role as it can be combined with CO2 to produce methanol, which expands SAF production options.
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)
Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) technologies play a vital role in reducing aviation's carbon footprint. When integrated with SAF production, CCS offers a pathway for achieving negative emissions. The technical aspects of CCS implementation depend heavily on the availability of suitable geological formations for CO2 storage, requiring detailed geological surveys and engineering assessments. Co-locating CCS and SAF plants enhances efficiency through shared infrastructure, including pipelines and storage facilities.
Industry Commitments and Innovations
Several companies presented breakthrough technologies in clinical processes and advanced catalysts that could enhance production efficiency by up to 50% compared to traditional fixed-bed catalyst technologies. For instance, one company's innovative approach allows for SAF production from diverse feedstocks, including municipal solid waste, biomass, CO2, and hydrogen. Their technology demonstrates practical application in their Louisiana facility, which will use local biomass from sugar cane processing and is expected to achieve a production capacity of 13,000 barrels per day by 2028.
Southwest Airlines shared its strategy, which involves direct participation in the SAF production chain, giving the airline control over sourcing and pricing—a strategic move to mitigate fuel cost volatility. By 2030, Southwest aims to produce 250 million gallons of SAF annually, with a long-term goal of achieving 2.5 to 3 billion gallons by 2050.
Challenges and Barriers
Despite the progress made in SAF development, significant challenges remain:
Cost: Current SAF production costs run 6 to 8 times higher than traditional jet fuel, creating a significant economic barrier to widespread adoption.
Production Capacity: The renewable fuel sector shows promise but faces significant challenges, with only about 20% of potential capacity currently being utilized.
Consumer Engagement: Only about 1.3% of passengers actively participate in carbon offset options during ticket purchases, highlighting a gap in consumer awareness and engagement.
Investment Uncertainty: Attracting risk capital has proven essential for advancing the SAF industry, though many potential investors remain cautious due to complicated financial forecasts and an unstable regulatory environment.
Regulatory Challenges: Frequent regulatory changes, particularly the impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), have created uncertainty regarding tax credits, limiting long-term investment in SAF.
Supply Chain Dynamics: Local feedstock availability and access to markets remain critical to the success of SAF producers.
Regional Perspectives
Canadian SAF Supply Chain Development
The Canadian perspective provided valuable insights into national supply chain development. Canada's resources—including feedstocks, carbon storage, and clean energy—position the country well for SAF production. However, the country's regulatory and policy landscape presents challenges, particularly as it is a patchwork of federal and provincial policies, such as the Canadian Clean Fuel Regulations and British Columbia's low-carbon fuel standard.
U.S. Initiatives and Clean Cities Coalition
The U.S. has set an ambitious goal of producing 27 billion gallons of SAF annually by 2030. The Clean Cities and Communities Coalition emerged as a crucial player in supporting SAF initiatives. With over 30 years of experience, the coalition collaborates with local stakeholders to deploy clean transportation and energy solutions. Their services include project deployment assistance, supply chain optimization, and community engagement, particularly valuable for overcoming logistical challenges associated with SAF production and distribution.
Future Outlook and Recommendations
Looking ahead, the industry faces significant challenges in meeting future SAF demand. Success in scaling SAF production and adoption will require:
Unprecedented collaboration between stakeholders
Substantial investment in infrastructure and technology
Supportive policy frameworks
Continued innovation in production technologies
Increased consumer awareness and engagement
Harmonization of regulations across regions
The aviation industry was urged to use its significant fuel expenditures to drive innovation in SAF and support the transition to sustainable energy sources. Traditional energy suppliers were criticized for their lack of long-term commitment to sustainability, with many prioritizing short-term profits over meaningful climate action.
The path to net-zero aviation is complex and challenging, but the industry's commitment to innovation and sustainability provides a foundation for achieving ambitious climate goals. As we move forward, it is clear that SAF will play a crucial role in decarbonizing the aviation sector. The success of this endeavor will depend on continued technological advancements, strategic investments, and a collective effort from all stakeholders in the aviation ecosystem.
The conference served as a critical platform for dialogue and collaboration, setting the stage for the next phase of SAF development and implementation. As the industry moves forward, the insights and commitments shared at this conference will undoubtedly shape the future of sustainable aviation.
Applied Data Research
-
Entrepreneur, Aviation Enthusiast
Sustainable Aviation Futures NA Congress 2024: Takeaways
The 2024 Sustainable Aviation Futures North America Congress, held in Houston, gathered industry leaders from across the value chain to tackle the urgent challenge of decarbonizing aviation. Over the course of three days, speakers showcased industry growth, ongoing research and strategies to scale up SAF in North America.
The Reality: Production Goals and Progress
Panelists quickly ripped off the bandaid: No, aviation is not on track to meet SAF production goals by 2030. In the US, the SAF Grand Challenge’s target of 3 billion gallons is unattainable, while Canada’s C-SAF Roadmap goal of 1 billion liters remains a significant stretch.
To move the industry past its nascent stages, cross-sector collaboration and knowledge sharing is critical. Bruce Fleming from Montana Renewables set the tone for the conference by sharing insights on becoming one of the largest SAF producers in North America. Local solutions that work with the immediate community, he stressed, have been the key to success. Other panelists also shared success stories so far to refocus the attention from unrealistically set targets to ongoing progress across the industry.
Promising Feedstock Solutions
Feedstocks should not compete with food production to minimize global concerns such as hunger and deforestation, emphasized Charles Schlumberger from World Bank. Elena Schmidt from Roundtable on Sustainable Biomaterials pointed to contextual sustainability assessments to better understand the impact of potential feedstocks. With that in mind, panelists highlighted significant advancements in SAF production technology.
Ethanol-to-Jet (EtJ) is a strong contender for the near future. The versatility of ethanol production (e.g. from corn, cellulosic sources, CO2, hydrogen) positions EtJ as a promising pathway for rapid SAF scaling, explained David Schwalje from Axens. Meg Whitty from LanzaJet echoed that North America’s 17 billion gallons of ethanol could become an abundant robust feedstock source. This approach not only utilizes existing infrastructure but also opens new markets for agricultural producers.
Though it requires further technological advancements and policy alignment, carbon capture and storage (CCS) has high potential when paired with EtJ. Drew Meloan from Honeywell UOP highlighted that integrating CCS into ethanol facilities can significantly lower SAF’s carbon intensity (CI). With the potential to simultaneously boost ethanol production and advance e-fuels, CCS finds itself at the center of EU policies. North America, on the other hand, lacks clear governmental guidelines needed to facilitate CCS adoption.
E-fuels, or synthetic fuels produced using renewable electricity, will not be the short term solution in North America. Many looking to participate in the industry, however, are seemingly waiting for power-to-liquid’s (PtL) viability and maturation –– a dangerous mindset that fails to recognize the importance of practical intermediary pathways, warned Christine Bassitt from Shell. Though an ideal alternative to traditional jet fuel, PtL faces significant hurdles, explained Michael Wang from Argonne National Laboratory, Joseph Powell from University of Houston and many others, including high production costs and the need for vast amounts of renewable electricity. Investment into e-fuels and direct air capture (DAC) cost reduction research (e.g. tandem catalysis, process integration) as well as more supportive policy frameworks are needed to move e-fuels forward.
Overall, pathways from agricultural residues that encourage more efficient use of existing crops and land present the most practical solutions for now, but no method should be discarded. Panelists pushed for the prioritization of ASTM certification approval processes for new pathways, mid-level blends and innovative feedstocks. A tandem approach is crucial when it comes to perfecting sustainable drop-in fuels.
Challenges in Financing, Policy and Incentives
The conference brought together many financing powerhouses to explain project bankability. As Vilas Kuchinad from Bank of America outlined, four factors need to be “bankable” for SAF projects: risk profile, feedstock sourcing, uplift agreements and incentives. The money is there, but prices across the board today do not make financial sense for investors unless the public sector partners with the private to cut costs and mitigate risk. But with uncertainty looming in the political air, government support for SAF in North America is unstable and inhibiting industry progress.
This doesn’t necessarily mean shifting to a mandate system, suggested Kevin Welsh from Airlines for America / SAF Coalition. The Refuel EU mandate, as an example for a rather straightforward approach, could end up being implemented unfairly, increasing costs for airlines and passengers. Regardless of the type of policy, the key to a good framework is practicality.
US policies have good intentions, but panelists concurred that changes should be made to improve overall efficacy. Federal tax credits (e.g. 45Z, 40B) need to be extended to reduce regulatory uncertainty. CI measuring methodologies need to be clearer and more consistent across the board, stressed Veronica Bradley from Clean Fuels Alliance America and Kevin Welsh. Federal agencies (e.g. DOE, USDA, FAA, EPA) should harmonize SAF definitions and include co-processing incentives. State-level policies need a certain degree of alignment to reduce complexity for producers. Bruce Fleming from Montana Renewables points out that rather than focusing on regulating a growing industry, a policy framework that encourages innovation and ideation instead is more effective in boosting SAF production.
Canada’s SAF industry is facing similar troubles with upcoming elections, explained Devin O’Grady from the Canadian Fuels Association. Although the Clean Fuels Regulations (CFR) and British Columbia’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard (BC-LCFS) have built up momentum for SAF research, stable and supportive policies are much needed to stimulate investment and feasibility studies.
If made, these improvements would build greater confidence in the accuracy of environmental impact assessment, de-risk projects that cost billions to develop, and in turn attract more financing options to encourage more parties to participate in the ecosystem.
Other Sustainable Aviation Approaches
Scaling up SAF production was a main focus in the conference, but other high impact players also shared the spotlight.
Contrails are relatively unexplored compared to other pockets of the industry. But with strong policy implications around the corner (i.e. the EU’s 2025 mandate on non-CO2 effects reporting), contrails might be a huge opportunity that could potentially halve aviation’s climate impact. Haldane Dodd from ATAG explained that though the solution is relatively straightforward, better understanding is needed for practical implementations of contrail mitigation. Matteo Mirolo from Breakthrough Energy and Ted Thrasher from MITRE detailed ongoing research efforts, including improving atmospheric modeling techniques and developing real-time decision tools for pilots and ATC.
Panelists on numerous occasions highlighted the importance of more transparent and accurate book-and-claim systems. SAF is not currently being accounted for properly, stressed Madison Carroll from CoSAFA, and better tracking will provide confidence from potential buyers and investors. Christine Bassitt from Shell emphasized the importance of simple book-and-claim systems, such as blockchain-based Avelia, to accurately and fairly distribute environmental attributes among parties in the SAF value chain.
Decarbonizing aviation requires a highly concerted joint effort from feedstock producers, SAF developers, logistics providers, aircraft OEMs, airlines, airports, investors and public agencies, all of whom attended this year’s Sustainable Aviation Futures NA Congress. Covering all topics from the incredibly insightful panels and deep dives is nearly impossible, as the wealth and depth of knowledge at the conference was simply jaw-dropping. The biggest takeaway of all is clear: amidst clouds of challenges, passionate and driven people are pushing aviation towards a greener future.