SAF Mandates: The Industry's Ticking Clock
Sustainability Partner
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Oneiros Aerospace
The ReFuelEU Aviation regulation is no longer just a policy—it’s a financial reckoning for fuel suppliers. The penalties for non-compliance have been set, and the numbers make one thing clear: fossil fuels are becoming the expensive option.
🚨 €2,700 per tonne penalty for missing SAF blending targets.
🚨 €13,992 per tonne penalty for eSAF non-compliance (starting in 2030).
These aren’t just regulatory fines; they’re market forces reshaping the economics of aviation fuel.
A Looming Cost Spiral?
If SAF supply doesn’t ramp up fast enough, we could see a feedback loop of rising penalties and SAF prices, making compliance even more costly. Here’s the trajectory:
✈️ 2025: A missed 2% SAF mandate adds €54 per tonne to fuel costs.
✈️ 2030: That penalty could climb past €250 per tonne, depending on SAF availability and production costs and the introduction of e-SAF mandates.
But here’s the real concern: The mandated fuel uptake is outpacing the deployment of new refineries. Right now, SAF projects take years to develop, finance, and build—yet the mandates are coming regardless of whether production catches up.
What Needs to Happen?
This moment reminds me of other energy transitions I’ve worked on—where policy moved faster than industry, and the cost of inaction became too great. In sectors like hydrogen, synthetic fuels, and nuclear-enabled energy, I’ve seen firsthand how supply chain constraints, financing gaps, and slow permitting processes can delay progress.
That’s why 2025 needs to be the year of record refinery announcements. The industry can’t afford to wait for the perfect conditions—we need to accelerate SAF production now.
🔹 Whether it’s HEFA, ATJ, or PTL, we’re beyond the phase of debating technologies—we need capacity on the ground.
🔹 The aviation industry must approach this the way other hard-to-decarbonize sectors have: by de-risking investment, securing long-term supply agreements, and integrating alternative energy sources.
🔹 The biggest opportunities will belong to those who move first—not just in compliance, but in shaping the future market structure.
This Isn't Just Policy—It's an Inflection Point
Aviation is at the same crossroads that energy-intensive industries have faced before. The penalties are forcing an irreversible shift. The question now isn’t whether the transition will happen—but who will control the supply, pricing, and strategic advantage when it does.